2020 Election Q&A and the Benefits of ““Go Anywhere” ” in a Macro-Dominant World
Sep 25, 2020 | Investing Strategies
We’ve received some interesting questions about the election, and about TradeSmith Decoder as a service. We’ll answer a few of those today. As a quick note regarding questions, the mailbag is always open: You can reach us via [email protected] We always enjoy hearing from readers — and if your question is a common one, we may answer it directly in…
Why the FANG Stocks Will Start Trading Like Commodities or Currencies, for Years to Come
Sep 18, 2020 | Investing Strategies
Imagine a child’s favorite food is birthday cake. He loves it so much that his fondest wish is to eat birthday cake for every single meal. Then, in some Twilight Zone version of reality, his wish is granted. He gets nothing but birthday cake, for every single meal. Morning, noon, and night. At first this would be great. The kid…
In Conditions Like These, You Don’t Need Fear to See a Big Market Decline
Sep 17, 2020 | Investing Strategies
We recently explained why stocks could retest the March lows before the year is out. This made some readers upset. Some of the feedback we received was along the lines of, “There is no way we could revisit the fear of the March lows.” The idea of replicating the fear conditions that existed in March seems impossible. To which we…
Stocks Could Retest the March Lows — Here’s Why
Sep 14, 2020 | Investing Strategies
Believe it or not, there is a plausible scenario where the stock market sees a retest of the March lows before 2020 ends. It isn’t a far-fetched scenario, either. Though not the base case, another 30% or greater drop in the S&P 500 — and the Nasdaq — could happen before the year is out. If that sounds bizarre, well,…
Dear America, We’ve Had Our Fill of Dollar Assets. Sincerely, The World
Aug 31, 2020 | Investing Strategies
Something interesting and exciting — and profoundly bullish for precious metals and Bitcoin — happened on Thursday and Friday of last week. To explain what happened, and why it’s a big bullish deal, we need to walk through the chain of events. On Thursday, Aug. 27, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a historic speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, live-streamed…
The 60-40 Portfolio is On Its Last Legs
Jul 31, 2020 | Investing Strategies
The 60-40 portfolio has been a cornerstone of retirement strategy for decades. Around the United States and the world, hundreds of millions of retirees have had, or still have currently, some version of a 60-40 portfolio. For American retirees, though, a serious problem looms. The 60-40 portfolio is on its last legs. It is simply going to stop working as…
Why Silver is Taking Off Like a Rocket Ship — and Should Keep Going
Jul 24, 2020 | Investing Strategies
In TradeSmith Decoder, we nailed the 2020 silver move thus far. And it looks like there is much more to come. We took a super-sized position in a bellwether silver ETF on March 23, two days after the low. Then we added a second leg (again substantially sized) on July 9, noting the upside move could accelerate. In addition to…
The U.S. Stock Market is Starting to Look Like China’s
Jul 07, 2020 | Investing Strategies
U.S. capital markets are no longer free. If they were quasi-free markets before, they are more or less state-directed markets now. This assessment comes from Ray Dalio, one of the most connected hedge fund managers in the world. Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest hedge funds in the world, in 1975. His personal net worth is in the…
The Rocket Fuel that Powered the Rally will Soon Run Out (If it Hasn’t Already Done So)
Jun 15, 2020 | Investing Strategies
We now have a basic understanding of what powered the 2020 rebound rally, which then morphed into a lockdown mania, and which now appears to be over. This is important because, with a sense of what happened — and the various components involved — we can better understand the probability distribution of what is likely to happen next. From the…
Signs That Market Sentiment Has Reached Dangerous Extremes (The Sequel)
Jun 10, 2020 | Investing Strategies
On Jan. 24 of this year, we noted “Three Signs Market Sentiment Has Reached Dangerous Extremes.” Within four weeks of that broadcast, the stock market peaked, and one of the swiftest bear market declines in history followed. Now market sentiment is looking extreme once again. If anything, the new levels of euphoria make the January action look sleepy. We are…
