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In Conditions Like These, You Don’t Need Fear to See a Big Market Decline

By: Justice Clark Litle

Sep 17, 2020 | Investing Strategies

We recently explained why stocks could retest the March lows before the year is out. This made some readers upset. Some of the feedback we received was along the lines of, “There is no way we could revisit the fear of the March lows.” The idea of replicating the fear conditions that existed in March seems impossible. To which we…

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Stocks Could Retest the March Lows — Here’s Why

By: Justice Clark Litle

Sep 14, 2020 | Investing Strategies

Believe it or not, there is a plausible scenario where the stock market sees a retest of the March lows before 2020 ends. It isn’t a far-fetched scenario, either. Though not the base case, another 30% or greater drop in the S&P 500 — and the Nasdaq — could happen before the year is out. If that sounds bizarre, well,…

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Dear America, We’ve Had Our Fill of Dollar Assets. Sincerely, The World

By: Justice Clark Litle

Aug 31, 2020 | Investing Strategies

Something interesting and exciting — and profoundly bullish for precious metals and Bitcoin — happened on Thursday and Friday of last week. To explain what happened, and why it’s a big bullish deal, we need to walk through the chain of events. On Thursday, Aug. 27, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a historic speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, live-streamed…

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The 60-40 Portfolio is On Its Last Legs

By: Justice Clark Litle

Jul 31, 2020 | Investing Strategies

The 60-40 portfolio has been a cornerstone of retirement strategy for decades. Around the United States and the world, hundreds of millions of retirees have had, or still have currently, some version of a 60-40 portfolio.  For American retirees, though, a serious problem looms. The 60-40 portfolio is on its last legs. It is simply going to stop working as…

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Why Silver is Taking Off Like a Rocket Ship — and Should Keep Going

By: Justice Clark Litle

Jul 24, 2020 | Investing Strategies

In TradeSmith Decoder, we nailed the 2020 silver move thus far. And it looks like there is much more to come. We took a super-sized position in a bellwether silver ETF on March 23, two days after the low. Then we added a second leg (again substantially sized) on July 9, noting the upside move could accelerate. In addition to…

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The U.S. Stock Market is Starting to Look Like China’s

By: Justice Clark Litle

Jul 07, 2020 | Investing Strategies

U.S. capital markets are no longer free. If they were quasi-free markets before, they are more or less state-directed markets now. This assessment comes from Ray Dalio, one of the most connected hedge fund managers in the world. Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest hedge funds in the world, in 1975. His personal net worth is in the…

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The Rocket Fuel that Powered the Rally will Soon Run Out (If it Hasn’t Already Done So)

By: Justice Clark Litle

Jun 15, 2020 | Investing Strategies

We now have a basic understanding of what powered the 2020 rebound rally, which then morphed into a lockdown mania, and which now appears to be over. This is important because, with a sense of what happened — and the various components involved — we can better understand the probability distribution of what is likely to happen next. From the…

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Signs That Market Sentiment Has Reached Dangerous Extremes (The Sequel)

By: Justice Clark Litle

Jun 10, 2020 | Investing Strategies

On Jan. 24 of this year, we noted “Three Signs Market Sentiment Has Reached Dangerous Extremes.” Within four weeks of that broadcast, the stock market peaked, and one of the swiftest bear market declines in history followed. Now market sentiment is looking extreme once again. If anything, the new levels of euphoria make the January action look sleepy. We are…

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The Ex-President of the European Central Bank Reveals the Playbook

By: Justice Clark Litle

Jun 09, 2020 | Investing Strategies

It’s rough out there — not just for the United States, but the entire world. The global economy is expected to face its worst recession in 80 years, according to a new Global Economics Prospects report published by the World Bank. This means that, to find a comparably bad recession year for the global economy — all countries across the…

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The Stock Market’s Bizarre Strength is Not About the Reopening, or the Recovery, At All

By: Justice Clark Litle

Jun 02, 2020 | Investing Strategies

The stock market was insanely strong last week. And we don’t mean strength within normal boundaries either — as in, “the market had a strong performance” or “the market looks strong.” This was strength well beyond the bounds of normal. It was strength so freakish, the standard explanations cannot account for it. Here is Mark Hulbert, a columnist for MarketWatch,…

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