Last Week’s Market Structure Event Was One of the First Popcorn Kernels to Pop
Mar 29, 2021 | News
On Feb. 26 — less than a month ago — we explained why risk levels were elevated for a “Market Structure” related meltdown event. A few weeks on, the danger has only grown. As we said in the piece: A market structure event is major price dislocation — like a meltdown or a flash crash — that happens for reasons…
The Suez Canal Jam-Up is More Fuel to the Fire for the Bullish USD Outlook
Mar 26, 2021 | News
One of the world’s largest container ships, greater in length than the height of the Eiffel Tower, is stuck in a narrow canal. It is stuck because the ship ran aground on the sides of the canal. High winds blew the ship off course, causing it to drift sideways until its ends were firmly lodged in the sides of the…
The Time is Right for the U.S. to Aggressively Confront China
Mar 24, 2021 | News
A general tone of conflict with China is escalating now — not just in respect to China versus the United States, but China versus Western allies as a group (with the United States at the forefront). This is ominous news for Western companies with significant business exposure to China (like Apple and Tesla). It is ominous news for countries with…
Confrontation Between the U.S. and China is Beginning to Heat Up
Mar 22, 2021 | News
Relations between the United States and China are on a downward slope, and tensions are on an upward slope. This has been true for a while now, enough so to fuel talk of a “new Cold War” between the U.S. and China, alternately known as “Cold War 2.0.” The original Cold War played out between the United States and the…
Europe is Facing a New COVID Nightmare (With Negative Implications for EUR/USD)
Mar 17, 2021 | News
On Feb. 17, we said America is Winning the Vaccine Race. A month later that assessment has proven spot-on. While the United States administers more than 2 million shots per day, nearing 3 million, Europe is descending into a new COVID-19 nightmare. The situation looks dire in Europe, with a “third wave” of COVID now sweeping the continent. Italy has…
Food-Price Inflation Could Trigger the Next Global Crisis
Mar 16, 2021 | News
If we had to identify a likely cause for the next global crisis, it would be food-price inflation — particularly in emerging markets and developing world countries. The current situation looks dangerous and could easily become dire. When stock markets crash, people get upset. But when food prices become unsustainable, people starve — and then they riot, and even seek…
R.I.P Bond Bull Market , 1981-2021
Mar 15, 2021 | News
Something momentous happened on Friday of last week. The greatest bull market in history likely came to its end. We are not talking about the U.S. stock market, but the U.S. treasury bond market. Before discussing what happened, let’s quickly revisit why the bond market is so important, and the way that interest rates work. Stock market valuations and price-to-earnings…
Things in the Stimulus Bill: Free Health Care, Pension Fund Bailouts, and UBI for Kids
Mar 12, 2021 | News
The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 — or American Rescue Plan for short — has been signed into law. You can read the text of the legislation here. The American Rescue Plan (we’ll call it ARP) is far more than just a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill. It is a transitional moment, and quite possibly a paradigm shift — a…
The Pain for Tech Stocks is Only Just Beginning
Mar 09, 2021 | News
The bursting of the tech bubble has taken down the Nasdaq, but left the Dow intact. This has created the greatest divergence between the Dow and the Nasdaq since 1993. March 8 was “the first time since 1993 that the Dow rose and closed within 1% of a record,” Bloomberg reports, “while the tech-heavy gauge was down more than 10%…
The Digital Dollar is High on the Fed-and-Treasury Priority List
Mar 03, 2021 | News
The digital dollar — a USD version of central bank digital currency — is now a “high-priority project.” That was the phrase used by Jay Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, in a U.S. Senate hearing on Feb. 23. “We are looking carefully, very carefully, at the question of whether we should issue a digital dollar,” Powell said. With each…
