Inflation Could Come Back Suddenly and Powerfully — Here’s How
Feb 10, 2020 | Investing Strategies
Ken Griffin is worried about inflation. We are, too. The market is highly complacent in its low-inflation assumptions. Many assets are priced as if inflation will stay low for years or even decades. If inflation roars back suddenly, it could wreak havoc in treasury bonds, high-yield debt, overbought “safe havens” like consumer staples and utilities, and multiple other places. It…
The World is Drowning in Debt, and Nobody Knows What Will Happens Next
Feb 06, 2020 | Investing Strategies
The world is drowning in debt, and nobody knows what will happen next. This is terrible news for fiat currencies, and excellent news for gold and Bitcoin. At a certain point, debt tends to beget more debt in a downward spiral with no way out. This generally happens for two reasons: First, because the debt load gets so heavy, relative…
Best of: Most Stocks are Duds (But You Can Win Anyway)
Dec 24, 2019 | Investing Strategies
Editor’s note: We come across a lot of research, and the study performed by Hendrik Bessembinder earlier this year was one of the most eye-opening we’ve seen. If you have a poorly performing stock in your portfolio, hoping it might make a comeback, here is some bad news: That comeback isn’t likely. Most “dud” stocks tend to stay duds. Not…
The Man Who Always Says “No”
Dec 02, 2019 | Investing Strategies
Imagine having a man who works for you whose only job is to say “No” to things. There is nothing else this man would do for you. He wouldn’t answer your phone, or help you with spreadsheets, or offer you assistance of any kind. If you asked for the slightest bit of help outside his job description he would just…
Conventional Investment Advice is Like Dieting Advice (All Over the Map and Terrible)
Nov 13, 2019 | Investing Strategies
There are few things more obnoxious than dieting and nutrition advice. The more you dig for answers, the more confusing things get. The findings conflict with each other. The recommendations are all over the map. For example, one guy, a doctor or a Ph.D., tells you whole wheat grains are a bedrock staple. Another Ph.D. says grains are toxic for…
Buffett’s Silence Speaks Volumes as He Sits on a Mountain of Cash
Nov 08, 2019 | Investing Strategies
When it comes to sky-high market valuations, Warren Buffett doesn’t have to speak. His mountain of cash does all the talking. “Sky-high” was the exact phrase Buffett used to describe market prices earlier this year. In spite of hoping to make an “elephant-sized acquisition” — another Buffett phrase — Berkshire’s Hathaway’s cash pile has swelled to a record-busting $128 billion….
How Cycles and Position Sizing are Connected
Nov 06, 2019 | Investing Strategies
We’ve been talking about cycles for the past few weeks. You can get a refresher here: What Investors and Farmers Have in Common: The Enduring Power of Cycles The Lotka-Volterra Equations: Nature’s Ode to Boom and Bust The WeWork Implosion is a Spectacular Example of a Cycle Top (and Era’s End) Today, we’ll explain how cycles and position sizing are…
Big Tech is a Hot Mess, But Microsoft Floats Above the Fray
Nov 01, 2019 | Investing Strategies
The world of big tech looks like a chaotic, bruising, conflicted hot mess right now. And then there is Microsoft, floating above the fray. The Redmond, Wash.-based giant not only vies closely with Apple for the title of “most valuable company in the world” — both of them have a trillion-plus in market cap — it seemingly skates through a…
The WeWork Implosion is a Spectacular Example of a Cycle Top (and Era’s End)
Oct 30, 2019 | Investing Strategies
WeWork was, at one time, a Silicon Valley “unicorn” of legendary status. Now it is unicorn roadkill. In August, we argued that “The WeWork IPO Sums Up Everything Bad About the Unicorn Bubble.” That was more or less on point apart from one thing: The IPO never actually happened. Instead, WeWork self-destructed in one of the most bizarre and spectacular…
Buying Puts on Transport Stocks as a Protective Hedge
Oct 25, 2019 | Investing Strategies
The U.S. stock market is in an uncertain place right now. The Dow and S&P 500 are not far from their all-time highs, but technology stocks are a mixed bag and small caps are well off their highs. Then, too, economic indicators are also a mixed bag. Some point toward optimism, but others are more gloomy, or even ominous. And…
