The Investor’s Marshmallow Test
Sep 18, 2018 | Investing Strategies
Dr. Walter Mischel died last week at the age of 88. Most people don’t know his name. But they do remember the famous experiment he devised. Dr. Mischel helped lay the groundwork for a psychology revolution with his work in the 1960s (and follow-up studies decades later in the 1980s). He changed the field of psychology forever, creating a path…
Large Caps Turn Green as Small Caps Keep Trucking
Sep 14, 2018 | Investing Strategies
The right software tools (coupled with the right approach and mindset) can help you make the smartest decisions for your investments — and your portfolio as a whole — no matter what markets do next. Preparing for an uncertain future means being aware that different scenarios can unfold. That is why, in our piece on how to survive and thrive…
What Warren Buffett and Professional Poker Players Have in Common
Sep 11, 2018 | Investing Strategies
There’s a probability tool that Warren Buffett uses every time he evaluates an investment. The same tool is used by professional poker players in most of the hands they play. This exact same tool is also useful in everyday life. It’s often valuable when making big decisions — for life in general, not just in terms of investments. Warren Buffett…
When Will It Be Time to Buy Gold Stocks Again?
Sep 07, 2018 | Investing Strategies
When will it be time to buy gold stocks again? The simple answer is, “When GDX (the bellwether gold stock ETF) returns to the green zone.” But what could make that happen? Most likely, the return of an inflationary mindset. Or barring that, a new breakout of deflation fear, which makes the fiat currency printing presses go crazy. Gold stocks…
Probability Series #3: The Mental Technique Jeff Bezos Uses (That Investors Can Use Too)
Sep 04, 2018 | Investing Strategies
Great decisions tend to look easy in hindsight. Through the lens of history, a hugely successful call — like starting a company that changes the world, for example — appears to be an obvious move. But big decisions always look easier after they’ve worked out. Making the call in the moment can be tough. There is a useful mental technique…
It’s Time to Get Out of Emerging Markets
Aug 31, 2018 | Investing Strategies
It is time to get out of emerging market equities and ETFs. A specific long-term EM stock holding — with a plan to hold for many years — might be a unique case. But in terms of emerging markets as an asset class … and particularly in regard to popular emerging market ETFs, which many investors use to gain international…
Big Investment Changes by the Billionaires in Q2
Aug 28, 2018 | Investing Strategies
The billionaire investors just reported their second-quarter holdings through the required SEC 13(f) filings. The “smart money” has moved to a more diversified allocation. We showed you in May that the billionaires owned consumer discretionary stocks by a large margin over technology, which was their next-largest sector holding. Financials were the third-largest holding. The second quarter has seen a reversion…
How to Survive and Thrive in the Next Bear Market
Aug 24, 2018 | Investing Strategies
Are you ready for the next bear market? Have you thought about what it will be like … and how you’ll handle your portfolio when it comes? If you haven’t given much thought to the topic, you aren’t alone. Most investors have little idea what to do in bear markets. That’s why many investors get clobbered in bear markets —…
Probability Series #2: The Bombers that Never Came Back
Aug 21, 2018 | Investing Strategies
In an earlier probability series, we wrote about the medical doctor who beat roulette. The lesson was that, if you can learn how to “put the odds in your favor” — to make use of probability, in other words — you can possibly find ways to consistently win where others lose. And while investing is not a “game of chance”…
If U.S. Treasuries Rise in Tandem with the Dollar, Get Long
Aug 17, 2018 | Investing Strategies
On June 1, we wrote that “The Arrival of Trade War Makes U.S. Treasuries Attractive.” In that piece, we pointed out (again) that U.S. small caps are a good place to be, thanks to (1) the strength of the U.S. economy, and (2) domestic insulation from trouble in the rest of the world. We also noted that U.S. Treasury bonds…
