There’s a Multi-Year Global Meat Shortage Unfolding: Here’s Where to Invest
Apr 26, 2019 | Investing Strategies
There is a global meat shortage going on. Today we’ll cover two strong investment ideas, as this is part of a powerful trend that could shape agricultural markets for years. A meat shortage might sound funny, but the impacts are deadly serious. The shortage has already become a worst case scenario for China. If the problem is contained within China,…
Amusing Proof that the Efficient Market Hypothesis is False
Apr 24, 2019 | Investing Strategies
The Efficient Market Hypothesis, or EMH for short, is a theory that argues it is impossible to do well in the stock market because all information is already reflected in market prices. There are three different versions of EMH, known as the weak, semi-strong, and strong forms. Weak EMH: Quoted asset prices reflect all forms of publicly available information. Semi-strong…
The Four Most Common Financial Media Fallacies
Apr 17, 2019 | Investing Strategies
There are four fallacies that show up in the financial media over and over again. You can find them on a constant basis, in countless articles, stories, and reports. Pundits on cable financial channels spout them off daily — and investors can fall prey to them in their own thinking. These fallacies are common because there is an underlying logic…
This Unloved Commodity Could Be an Excellent Investment
Apr 12, 2019 | Investing Strategies
As a rule of thumb, commodities are not great investments. But under the right circumstances, a commodity can be an excellent investment. In the commodity business, they have a saying: “The best cure for high prices is high prices. And the best cure for low prices is low prices.” The saying captures the ups and downs of the commodity production…
The Five Risks of Retirement
Apr 10, 2019 | Investing Strategies
“More return with less risk ” is a key goal for TradeSmith. That is what our software is meant to help you achieve. This is really important, too — more important than ever, in fact — in the context of retirement goals. Retirement should be a happy time in life. The word “happy” is used literally here, as numerous studies…
The Profitless IPO Boom Has Parallels to 1999
Apr 05, 2019 | Investing Strategies
“If you didn’t come to party, don’t bother knockin’ on my door.” That is a line from the classic Prince song 1999, which also contains the line “Two thousand zero zero party over, oops, out of time.” The Prince song was released in the early 1980s. The actual year 1999 was an epic party for Silicon Valley, as venture capital…
Two Techniques for Avoiding Investor Groupthink
Apr 03, 2019 | Investing Strategies
Markets behave rationally most of the time. But at various points in the market cycle, irrational behavior can lead to extremes. Mr. Market is like the typical human being this way: Logical and grounded most of the time, but occasionally way out of bounds. For investors, these irrational periods are when markets are at their most dangerous. It only takes…
Inverted Yield Curves are Bullish for Growth Stocks
Mar 29, 2019 | Investing Strategies
The yield curve inverted for real on March 22. It was a far more serious episode than the mild inversion we wrote about in December 2018. We told you not to worry about that last inversion. The latest inversion is more serious, and a warning sign for the economy — and yet it could also be bullish, not bearish, for…
Why Growth Could Keep Dominating Value — and Why Risk Control is More Important Than Ever
Mar 27, 2019 | Investing Strategies
As of this writing, value stocks have underperformed growth stocks for the second longest stretch in recorded history. For a big reason that many investors don’t see, this underperformance could continue for years to come, which makes risk control measures more important than ever. Long-term investing advocates don’t seem to grasp why growth stocks could continue their historic streak of…
U.S.-China Trade Deal Update: Things Have Gotten Complicated
Mar 22, 2019 | Investing Strategies
The U.S.-China trade narrative has gone from simple to complex. That increases the risk to future stock market gains. There are multiple factors intertwining here that muddy the picture: As of the March 20 close, the S&P 500 had risen nearly 13% for its best yearly kick-off since 1998. The size of the early rally means a lot of gains…
