The Three Types of Uncertainty (Aleatoric, Epistemic, and Knightian)
Nov 05, 2020 | Educational
Learn about the three types of uncertainty.
“The political polling profession is done,” Republican pollster Frank Luntz told Axios on Nov. 4. “It is devastating for my industry.” The frustration with polling was further echoed by a New York Times opinion piece titled, “Can We Finally Agree to Ignore Election Forecasts?” The Atlantic also piled on with a piece titled, “The Polling Catastrophe.” Our hunch is that…
How Green Regulation Could Help Save the Oil and Gas Industry
Nov 03, 2020 | Educational
What’s good for investors is sometimes terrible for the U.S. economy, and what’s good for the economy is sometimes terrible for investors. You know that old saying, “What’s good for General Motors is good for America”? Sometimes, that saying is completely backwards. What is bad for an industry can be wonderful for America on the whole — and vice versa….
The Crucial Differences Between Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy
Nov 02, 2020 | Educational
October 2020 was an ugly month for the U.S. stock market. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all declined more than 2%, registering their second down month in a row. Some will attribute this market weakness to pre-election jitters. In our view, it is more a reflection of post-election jitters — that is to say, what happens in the…
Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Will Arrive Faster Than You Think
Oct 27, 2020 | Educational
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are likely to arrive faster than you think. This is partly because they will not be true cryptocurrencies. CBDCs will be centralized, whereas true cryptocurrencies are decentralized. This makes a big difference. The decentralized aspect of a cryptocurrency is what makes it distributed and trustless – meaning there is no requirement to trust a third…
Solar Energy is Dethroning Old King Coal
Oct 26, 2020 | Educational
Solar power is now “the cheapest electricity in history,” according to new data from the International Energy Agency (IEA). On a cost-comparison basis, the economics of solar energy are superior to coal for new projects, and by midcentury (2025), solar could have a larger global energy footprint than coal. This is a profound turning point, because coal has been a…
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are Having a Moment
Oct 21, 2020 | Educational
We are now barreling headlong into the Information Age, the fourth great age of human civilization. The prior three, as we’ve explained before, were the Stone age, the Agrarian age, and the Industrial age. The Stone Age gave us tools, the Agrarian Age gave us farming techniques, and the Industrial Age gave us factories and physical machines. Now the Information…
‘Balance Sheet Recessions’ and the Inflationary QE Endgame
Oct 20, 2020 | Educational
To understand the times we are in, it is helpful to know what a “Balance Sheet Recession” is, and why it is so hard to get out of one. The Balance Sheet Recession — which can last for years, or even decades — is another crucial concept for investors to grasp, along with other concepts we’ve explained like financial repression,…
Why the U.K. Government May Need to Crash Its Own Currency
Oct 19, 2020 | Educational
The United Kingdom is headed for a “No Deal Brexit” break-up with the European Union. This assessment is based on harsh statements coming directly from Boris Johnson, the U.K. Prime Minister. If a “No Deal Brexit” happens, or even just an exceptionally “Hard” Brexit, the result could be a hammer blow for the British economy. That, in turn, could force…
A New Wave of Infection is Hitting the U.S. and Europe — and a Fiscal Wave Will Follow
Oct 16, 2020 | Educational
It would not be correct to say the coronavirus is back — because it never actually left. We can say, however, that coronavirus caseloads are surging again on two continents. The numbers are starting to look alarming, and it isn’t even truly cold yet. (The winter months are expected to make the pandemic worse, due to reduced outdoor activities, lower…
The Polls Aren’t Wrong. Nor Were They Wrong in 2016
Oct 14, 2020 | Educational
In recent days, we’ve written about the “Biden Sweep” scenario, and how Wall Street has come to embrace it as a bullish expectation. The thing that Wall Street fears is a government spending cut-off that leaves the U.S. economy in a deflationary hole. If policy gridlock cuts off the anticipated flow of upcoming spending, permanent job loss and recessionary scars…
