America is Winning the Vaccine Race
Feb 17, 2021 | Educational
America looks poised to come from behind, muster its formidable might, and win hands down — just as it has done before, time and time again, in various contests throughout the twentieth century. But this time it isn’t about a World War, a space race, or an arms race; it’s about the vaccine rollout. America winning the vaccine race likely…
Fed Chairman Powell to Inflation Hawks: Chill Out For Now
Feb 12, 2021 | Educational
Inflation hawks need to relax, and perhaps even chill out a bit: The Magic 8-Ball forecast for when inflation roars back is still “Reply Hazy, Try Again.” That was the implied message of Jay Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, in a not-so-subtle pushback this week against rising fears that inflation will quickly become an economic problem. In no…
Aftermath Lessons from the Reddit Rebellion
Feb 09, 2021 | Educational
The Reddit rebellion appears to be over, or otherwise headed toward a quiet end. The GameStop squeeze is winding down — the share price of GME has stayed below $100 for days — and the Reddit silver squeeze appears to be winding down, too. In many ways, the GameStop saga was not what it seemed (for reasons we’ll examine shortly)….
Why the Coming Inflationary Era Could Kill off Passive Investing
Jan 27, 2021 | Educational
Investors, on the whole, seem convinced that inflation will stay low; that interest rates can’t rise very much; and that passive investing is here to stay. All three of those beliefs could be wrong, and the second two statements hinge on the first one. If inflation comes back in a meaningful way, interest rates could rise again. And both of…
How Jim Simons Built the World’s Greatest Quant Fund
Jan 22, 2021 | Educational
Jim Simons, the legendary mathematician, hedge fund manager, and quant, retired a few weeks ago from board chairman duties for Renaissance Technologies (RenTech), the firm he started with partners more than 40 years ago. He is stepping back at 82 years old. Simons and his firm are best known for their Medallion Fund, which first began trading in 1988. The…
Fifty Years of U.S. Dollar Policy — and Preparation for What’s Next
Jan 20, 2021 | Educational
With a daily volume of $6.6 trillion, the foreign exchange market is larger than any government. Given that reality, no U.S. presidential administration has true control over the direction of the dollar. But all of them like to pretend that they do. On Tuesday, incoming Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave confirmation testimony to the U.S. Senate. In that testimony, Yellen…
Guest Editorial: Five Tech Predictions for 2021
Jan 18, 2021 | Educational
Editor’s Note: The markets and the TradeSmith offices are closed for the Martin Luther King, Jr., holiday, so today we’re sharing a guest editorial from our friend Jeff Brown at The Bleeding Edge that we thought was particularly insightful. We hope you enjoy these predictions for 2021; we’ll be back tomorrow with our own thoughts on the market and the…
Scenes from an Epic Market Mania: Bull Raids and Meme Stocks
Jan 15, 2021 | EducationalNews
Speculative areas of the market are not just red hot, they are white hot. Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), a barometer of speculative froth, are on fire. In the past few days alone: Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF) jumped more than 63% on their first day of trading. Poshmark (POSH) saw its share price more than double on the first day….
Why a New Commodity Supercycle Could Now Be Underway
Jan 14, 2021 | EducationalNews
Goldman Sachs thinks a new commodity supercycle could be underway. We think they might be right. If they are in fact right — which is easily possible — base metals like copper, along with other commodity staples widely used in construction, vehicles, and home appliances, could be looking at price gains that stretch out over a decade, or even multiple…
Bitcoin Will Not Replace the U.S. Dollar (It Will Do Something Better Instead)
Jan 13, 2021 | EducationalNews
As the institutional world starts taking Bitcoin seriously, new questions are emerging. For instance: Will Bitcoin replace the U.S. dollar? Will it push aside major fiat currency competitors? Could Bitcoin usher in a fiat-free world? In our view, the answer is “no” three times over. The destiny of Bitcoin is not to replace or dominate fiat currencies. It is to…
