“The investor’s chief problem — and even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself.”

— Benjamin Graham

I’m going to give you a statistic that makes no logical sense.

Ready?

According to a 2018 study by AAA, 73% of people believe they are above-average drivers.

Do you see the problem with this number?

Even though about 90% of accidents are caused by human error, about three-quarters of people  believe they are better-than-average behind the wheel.

If you put these people on a bell curve, 50% of drivers would have to be below average.

The other half would be above average.

This skew results from an interesting and damaging bias in economics, finance, and human psychology: Overconfidence Bias.

This week, I’m digging deeper into human behaviors and biases that can and will affect your money.

Let’s explore the phenomenon of Overconfidence Bias and lay out best practices to help you mitigate it.

The Risks of Overconfidence

What does it say that 65% of people believe they have “above-average intelligence”?

Again, this is impossible since only 50% of people could be smarter than the mean IQ.

As an investor, this factor matters greatly.

Dr. Daniel Kahneman, who won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, calls overconfidence “the most significant of the cognitive biases.”

People drastically overestimate their understanding of the financial markets and investments. As a result, investors might engage in more risky behaviors that they believe can outperform the market.

But it’s not just retail investors like you or me who can fall into this trap.

Behavioral economist James Montier conducted a 2006 study of 300 fund managers and asked a simple question. Are they better than the average analyst in their abilities? As you might expect, the number who deemed themselves a better-than-average analyst was higher than 50%.

The tally was 74% of money managers saying they were above average.

Meanwhile, of the other 26%, most of these respondents said they were “average.”

Very few people said they were “below average.”

It’s amazing how this overconfidence is consistent across many professions and levels of financial expertise.

Overconfidence Breeds More Errors

Overconfidence is also a lethal bias because it can accelerate other behavioral errors that can cost you money.

Steven Pressman, an economist who studies financial fraud, determined that overconfidence bias is a primary reason why so many investors are susceptible to Ponzi schemes and other scams.

Overconfidence can also fuel an urge to engage in too much trading. Despite evidence that over-trading can impact performance and reduce returns, this bias has accelerated a self-attribution bias when a trader succeeds or fails.

Investors will attribute their success to their research but blame financial losses on things outside their control (like the Federal Reserve or public policy).

This cognitive process will create a feedback loop that drives them to engage in more risky behavior while failing to recognize the source of any underperformance (their confidence).

This can also compound overconfidence in their ability to time the market and the illusion that they have greater control of the markets than they really do.

How to Overcome Overconfidence

Many economists and psychologists argue that overconfidence bias is the single most challenging bias to overcome.

Why? Because we can regularly spot overconfidence and risk-taking in other people’s behaviors.

Yet, we commonly fail to recognize it in ourselves.

Even when other people tell us that we are taking unnecessary risks, we might ignore them or try to justify our behavior.

It’s very difficult to eliminate our biases because our subconscious primarily drives them.

However, there are three practices that we recommend to limit this specific bias.

The first is to understand the power of more information.

It’s absolutely critical that you have an open mind when evaluating investments. Before putting your money to work, it’s valuable to assess the investment from all sides.

When you can combine a wealth of different tools, you can expand your conviction. When your conviction is backed by multiple fundamental, technical, and behavioral strengths, the better your probability for success. 

Second, evaluate your performance on an annual basis. If you have built a concentrated portfolio, it’s important to compare it against a benchmark like the S&P 500. If you are regularly underperforming the market, consider using exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or other more passive investments that might better mirror market-based returns.

Third, consider trading less and investing more often.

This practice means you take a less active approach to the markets with a longer timeline. You must remember that active trading puts you up against a wealth of market actors like high-frequency traders, hedge funds, and other actors who have significantly more resources than retail investors.

At TradeSmith, we build technology that helps investors better control their emotions.

Our Green/Yellow/Red Health Indicator zones offer a proven system that tells you when it’s safe to own a stock and when you should sell.

We are also adamant about using customized trailing stops to eliminate the emotions linked to every investment.

Trailing stops can give you the confidence to “set it and forget it” and eliminate the temptation to jump in and out of positions.

Finally, we know that many of you are regular newsletter readers. You must have confidence in the experts. But consider maximizing your conviction and confidence in each pick by checking each position’s health before buying a stock. 

It would look something like this …

You get an alert (yes, our system does this) that tells you your favorite newsletter writer released a new “buy up to” stock recommendation.

You click on that and log into our system. There, you can then see whether that stock is red, yellow, or green.

You could choose to buy it no matter what, but maybe your new rule is you want “confirmation” in our system, too.

That means you only buy if it’s green in our system.

Then, you look at how risky it is and use our Position Size Calculator to help you take on just the right amount of risk when buying that stock.

That’s real confidence and conviction. It’s how I like to buy my stocks, and I think you should, too…

Because it can mean the difference between devastating portfolio losses…

Or knowing the exact day to enter any stock for massive gains.

You can start overcoming your Overconfidence Bias today by going here.

In the meantime, I’ll be back to discuss other biases during a very busy earnings week.

I used to think the Kaplan family was abnormal …

Every night, it’s the same thing.

“What do you want for dinner?”

“I don’t know. You?”

“How about pizza?”

“Nah, I’m not in the mood for that. Burgers?”

Ugh … and it keeps going.

But I learned this is pretty common. I bet you have that same conversation a lot!

Think about how you make decisions.

Think about buying a TV or taking a vacation. Or even how you ponder dinner.

It’s all gut feeling and a mix of research, depending on what we’re talking about here.

But, in terms of personal finance and growing wealth and retirement…

Why do people (I’m talking to you) make the decisions they do with their money?

That is a central question to the study of behavioral finance.

Don’t get caught up in the word “behavior.” It’s not as dull as it sounds.

You see, for decades, economists and academics thought the markets were rational.

But human beings… we know they aren’t rational.

The ability to keep your emotions in check is very challenging with investing.

It’s much harder than picking stocks and engaging in research.

But I have a plan for you.

Once you master your emotions and master your behavior, you can exploit the misbehavior and the irrationality of markets and other investors.

Today, I’m kicking off a six-part series that we’ll revisit over the course of the next few weeks on cognitive bias, behavioral finance, and mastering emotions.

This is important for you to understand. We are not different.

In the past, you  may have heard me describe myself as “the world’s worst investor.” But I’m far from that now – because I’ve got a proven, backtested system to help me overcome my emotions as an investor.

And you can do it, too.

Behavioral Finance 101

Let me ask a few questions.

Do you find yourself checking your investing accounts 15 times a day?

Are you jumping in and out of stocks in a frenzy?

Do you see it go up and say to yourself “I’m selling to lock in my profits …”

Or the stock goes down, “I have to buy more to break even. You know, it’s coming back up for sure.”

Have you ever bought a stock at an all-time high – promising that you’ll own it for years – only to sell it at a 5% to 10% loss a week later?

Does this chart from Toptal and Credit Suisse feel familiar to you?

I’ve been there. A LOT!

All of these questions and ensuing actions are rooted in human bias and emotion.

There is something in our brain that makes us irrational when it comes to money.

Great minds are studying this at the Ph.D. level, and even they will admit that they can’t get to the fundamental reason we behave this way. There are theories. There are arguments.

But we’ll probably be living on Saturn before we truly understand ourselves.

Our cognitive bias forces many of us to make fundamental mistakes with our investments.

We kick ourselves when we buy high and sell low. We doubt our ability to manage our own money because of mistakes that we essentially make as novices.

And this happens to legendary investors, billionaires, and hedge funds. There are humans everywhere and they’re always pacing in their minds around money.

Before we dive into this, I want you to know two things.

First, you can manage your own money better than a so-called expert.

You simply need to overcome these behavioral challenges.

Second, everyone makes these mistakes in their lifetimes.

It doesn’t matter if you’re a new investor or a person with three master’s degrees in economics and finance.

Dr. Daniel Crosby is a renowned behavioral finance expert and author of The Laws of Wealth: Psychology and the secret to investing success.

His research shows that wealth advisers typically do an excellent job of educating their clients on managing cognitive bias.

However, wealth managers fall into the same behavioral traps as retail investors when it comes to their money.

Crosby notes that the best financial advisers are great at giving advice, but they’re terrible at following their own.

This should give you some comfort in knowing that we’re all human.

But it should also motivate you to take a step back and discover how you can improve.

So, let’s take a look at some prevalent cognitive biases that can impact your money.

As I said earlier, I’ll dive into each of these concepts in depth over the next few weeks.

Not only will I talk about three subcategories of each topic, but I’ll offer you some tips to help you overcome these behaviors. I’ll also show you how our technology can help you mitigate them.

The Basics on Bias

When it comes to human bias, these are the four categories that require deep inspection.

Overconfidence – Perhaps the most dangerous human bias, overconfidence, stems from a fundamental belief in our ability to control time and outcomes. I will talk more about something called the desirability effect. This is the belief that something will happen simply because we want it to occur. For example, think about the person who tells you that a stock trading at $50 is going to $100 but has offered zero fundamental, technical, or rational insight into how or why that will occur. Would you buy that stock? Many people would just buy a stock due to the confidence of the person offering that information.

Portfolio Construction – It’s very common for investors to jump in and out of stocks. It’s also very common for people to only buy what they know. How often do people tell you to go out and buy the stocks of the products that you buy, like Coca-Cola? The desire to buy “familiar” stocks is an extraordinary bias that limits your universe of opportunities and returns. At TradeSmith, we want to beat back this bias and show you a world of companies that present lower risk and higher upside potential. You might never know what these companies even do, but our Green Zone stocks present true profit potential based on our algorithms. I’m also going to talk about the issues of Framing, Mental Accounting, and Familiarity Bias.

Loss Aversion – This is the tendency for investors to focus more on preventing losses than making profits over the long term. Ask around. I bet your friends and family would rather not lose $1,000 than make $2,000. Human beings are terrified of losing, and the more losses they experience, the more loss-averse they will become. This is the reason why people sell low regularly. When I discuss this in more depth, I’ll show you the straightforward tool that can help you overcome this bias.

Information Breakdown – Perhaps you’ve heard of the gambler’s fallacy. This the belief that patterns are common in gambling and investing. If you flipped a coin, what is a more likely outcome? Heads-Heads-Heads-Heads or Heads-Tails-Heads-Tails? If you answered the former or the latter, you made an error. Both are just as likely to occur. That’s not the only informational bias that exists. There is attention bias, which fuels a desire to purchase a stock that Jim Cramer is yelling about. When I break down information bias, I’ll show you how to separate the signal from the noise.

Finally, we’re going to beat back all of these biases and show you the exact tools you can use to ensure you can invest with confidence.

TradeSmith is designed to help you sleep better at night.

What we offer is more than just a set of tools. It can be a life enhancement.

What would you do if you weren’t checking the market 15 times a day?

What else would you do with your time if you didn’t spend it worrying about your retirement?

What if you could be less active in the markets?

If any of that sounds good to you, why wait?

Let us help you overcome these biases together.

Over the weekend, try to think about the types of rationalization you make for buying and selling stocks. Document it and even send us an email at [email protected] about it!

Give me a few weeks, and I assure you, you’re going to have far more faith in yourself and your money than ever before.

For a long time, people have warned me about trading stocks and options around earnings season.

It can be an emotional time, and I don’t want to make any rash decisions.

This season is especially challenging for retail investors.

And for good reasons.

We remain engulfed in a pandemic.

Inflation is rising while the dollar has dropped this quarter.

And companies face more variables than ever.

Even good news isn’t rewarded.

We saw the largest banks report blowout earnings, only to see shares pull back sharply.

Next week will be one of the busiest weeks for earnings all quarter.

Tesla (TSLA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Visa (V), Starbucks (SBUX), Apple (AAPL), and Facebook (FB)…

There are hundreds of companies reporting next week.

And if you own any that are consumer-facing, you might be interested in this secret weapon.

The Warning Signs Were Clear for This Tech Giant

Many of Silicon Valley’s largest tech firms are reporting earnings next week.

And you want to have confidence if you own any of the companies listed above, right?

Well, take a look at what recently happened to Netflix.

This was among the ultimate at-home stocks, right?

Its growth over the last few years has been remarkable.

Since Q1 2013, the company’s global subscriber base has surged from 34.24 million to 207.64 million in Q1 2021, according to Statista.

It has produced multiple films and documentaries that have won Academy Awards, Emmy Awards, a Grammy Award, and Golden Globe Awards, including 37 Oscar nominations in 2021, surpassing the 24 from last year.

However, shares of NFLX are off nearly 10% since Monday after the company reported a stunning statistic.

You see, on Monday, the company dramatically disappointed investors during its earnings call. Even though Netflix crushed per-share earnings expectations and topped revenue forecasts, they reported a HUGE miss on new subscribers.

The world’s largest streaming platform reported net new subscribers at 3.98 million, well below the 6.2 million expected by analysts, according to FactSet.

Netflix relies on consistent subscriber growth to keep its investor base happy.

Subscriber growth is the lifeblood of the balance sheet.

This growth is critical as it faces competitive pressures from Hulu, ViacomCBS, NBC’s Peacock, and other streaming networks. According to Allied Market Research, the global streaming market is worth more than $50 billion and could more than triple in the next five years. The competition will heat up…

If Netflix wants to produce billions of dollars in new programming, it needs new subscribers to help fund those ambitious projects. If it wants to expand into new countries, it requires strong cash flow to afford those expansion plans.

If I were an investor in Netflix, I would have at least liked a hint that things were slowing down in terms of subscriber growth. Luckily, it turns out that such a signal exists.

The Ultimate Social Indicator

Honestly, the reason Netflix missed big on these numbers doesn’t matter. It could have been the programming. It could have been recent price hikes. It could have been the competition.

But I don’t care about any of these factors. Quite frankly, I don’t need to speculate.

That’s because I have access to an inside indicator that was available before Netflix reported its earnings.

And investors could have used this indicator to protect their principal and gains.

Armed with the knowledge I’m about to share, they could have bought puts or even sold the stock.

The signal I want to share came from our friends at LikeFolio.

As CEO of a company that helps investors navigate markets with algorithms and data analysis, I LOVE fresh insight that tells a complete story about a stock. LikeFolio analyzes social media data to understand major shifts in consumer behavior.

So, take a look at these two charts.

This first is the 90-day moving average of Netflix viewership mentions on social media. As you can see, the number of mentions from the middle of last year plunged over the final quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of this year.

What can that tell us? It suggests that with social mentions dropping to their lowest levels since 2019, consumers are not actively purchasing Netflix services.

So, when we head into the earnings report, the customer growth levels may not align with the aggressive forecasts issued by Wall Street.

Check out this chart as well.

It measures mentions on social media that reflect “Customer Purchase Intent” over 30 days as compared to the stock price.

As you can see, the company’s share price has continued to rally since October 2019.

However, we see a significant decline in purchasing intent among consumers on social media since April. It appears that this intent maxed out at the onset of the pandemic (in April 2020).

The number of mentions that would indicate an intent to purchase Netflix services has declined by 63% year-over-year and 25% from the previous quarter.

These two charts signal the increasing likelihood that fewer people are signing up for Netflix services and that fewer people intend to purchase the company’s services in the future.

This Signal Eliminates the Noise of Earnings Season

You can’t trust the Wall Street analysts who are rarely short technology stocks.

They’re always clamoring over each other to prove the most bullish case possible with the highest price target profitable.

But they typically miss out on the short-term catalysts driving a stock up or down.

Things like: Are consumers adding Netflix subscriptions or ditching it for other streaming services?

LikeFolio’s analysis offered a complete picture of what Netflix customers and potential customers are doing. As you saw in the chart above, fewer people are talking about owning Netflix or purchasing the firm’s services than in the past.

And check this out.

LikeFolio just launched the first week of this earnings season’s predictions in their Earnings Season Pass product, which offers deep consumer sentiment ahead of each company’s report.

With Netflix, LikeFolio not only predicted the sharp drop in consumer enthusiasm, but they’re also on the verge of making a lot of money on what I’d consider a low-risk, high-reward bet on their data.

You see, they risked $240 to earn a profit potential of $260.

With the trade they made … as long as Netflix remains under $540 by Friday, they’re looking at a gain of more than 100%.

Since subscriber growth is such a critical catalyst for the buying and selling of stock, shares have gone down, just as LikeFolio predicted.

Earnings Season Pass implemented a strategy to help readers double their money in just a few days with a maximum loss as small as $240.

I don’t know about you, but that’s the type of returns and insight that I’m looking for.

We’re entering the heart of earnings season. So, I want to give TradeSmith Daily readers a chance to access this tool before next week.

If you like what you see, head over to LikeFolio and take advantage of Earnings Season Pass. But hurry… today is the last day to make the most of the current earnings season! Click here before midnight tonight.

I’ll be back tomorrow to talk about some other traps you can avoid during earnings season.

Last week, I received a very personal email from a subscriber.

He had just started taking his investing seriously last year. He manages a personal IRA and tells me he has heard about the possibility of a market reset very soon.

Naturally, he’s nervous. There’s a lot of noise out there. He is a few years away from retirement. He doesn’t have time for a 10-year recovery like so many investors faced after the 2008 crisis.

If the market takes another nosedive, he could lose a lot of money.

He asked for insight on how to be realistic on his goals and how to identify the best research to generate ideas.

I’ve been in that boat before. So, today, I want to talk about how I eliminated my fears of a nosedive and how I sleep well at night.

Let’s dive into another email that I received in February 2020.

It was the most important email I’ve ever opened.

And its message can help this reader and so many others eliminate their fear about another market correction.

Let’s dig in.

The Lucky Ones

I was one of the lucky ones.

Well, I need to stop using the word “lucky.”

Let’s use the right word.

I was one of the “informed.”

Remember last February? Remember markets before COVID-19?

Right before the S&P 500 plunged by 34% in a matter of weeks…

Before the forced selling from ETFs pummeled stocks…

Before the fastest bear market EVER occurred?

Three weeks before the markets collapsed, I received an email.

It was an alert from our company, TradeSmith.

It informed me.

It screamed: “Get off the couch, Keith. Sell. Sell. Sell.”

As the COVID pandemic accelerated, I just had to listen.

The next day, I would move nearly my entire portfolio … most of my net worth … to cash and avoid a record selloff.

How I Sleep Well at Night

I trust the math. I trust our system. 

I’ve seen it be right every time I’ve been wrong.

The email said to sell. 

And so I sold without any doubt. That was Feb. 27, 2020. Nearly my entire portfolio, probably 97% of it, went to cash.

It doesn’t seem that long ago.

You know what happened next; it wasn’t pretty.

Take a look at this chart from late February to early April 2020.

Source: Yahoo! Finance

I walked away from the markets. I avoided the fastest bear market in history.

All because of TradeSmith.

Take a look at the signals I received that day.

TradeSmith alerted me to get out of these major indexes and the stocks that comprise their roster.

Did you know you can get this type of warning signal, too?

Wait… This is Possible?

If you’re nervous about the market right now, I’m with you.

The Federal Reserve could lose control of inflation.

China and the U.S. are entering a potential new Cold War.

Equity valuations are stretched to their highest levels since the dot-com bubble, according to Current Market Valuation (check out the chart below).

Source: www.currentmarketvaluation.com

Small-cap, micro-cap, and nano-cap stocks have crashed over the last few weeks.

And speculators are pouring money into anything they think they can buy for a dollar and sell for two dollars. Baseball cards, NFTs, cryptocurrencies, real estate, etc…

Things could end very badly due to this speculation.

There is a LOT going on right now.

As an equity investor, I am hyper-vigilant about my retirement accounts, my portfolios, and anywhere else I put my money.

I should be stressed out right now.

I should have my finger on my computer mouse ready to click and sell whenever things look ugly.

But I sleep well at night for a reason.

Because I know TradeSmith signals exist.

We created these signals years ago. They’re based on proprietary algorithms, historical data, and significant amounts of backtesting.

They capture market momentum, short- and long-term trends, and big-money sentiment.

Even before the 2020 market crash, here are the other downturns that investors could have avoided based on our signals.

The moment that these bear market signals flash, it’s time to move to cash. Not only can you avoid VERY SHARP downturns, but when the ensuing all-clear signal follows, you can put your money to work.

If you subscribe to Ideas by TradeSmith, you’ll automatically receive the bear market signal. There’s nothing that you need to set up. You’ll then be protected from the overall markets.

Of course, don’t forget to set up alerts on your positions, too. There are tons to choose from to keep your profits safe. We’ve created this video to help you with the alerts.

You have the ultimate insurance policy when it comes to market moves.

You can stop following CNBC. You can stop worrying about the big macroeconomic events. You can just relax and focus elsewhere.

If you don’t yet have Ideas by TradeSmith and would like the bear market signal added to your account, click here.

Either the market will move through this choppy period, and you can ignore it and ride any rebound.

Or, in the lower-probability scenario, you’ll get an alert that lets you know when it’s time to exit the markets.

Either scenario will give you much better rest, I assure you.

Listen Up

If you’re not signed up to get your custom signals for your portfolio, you’re flying blind in this market.

So here’s the thing. If even our math can’t keep you happy in the markets — it’s totally OK to go to cash right now.

There’s nothing wrong with going to cash.

But these signals were built to arm you with the exact time to buy vs. sell. And they have been successful at doing just that.

Our tools exist to give critical insight to retail investors.

People like to complain about income inequality between institutional investors and retail investors.

But the source of that divide is actually informational inequality.

You need institutional-level insight using cutting-edge technology and advanced technicals to deliver clear market signals.

That’s what we do.

We give you the tools to manage your own money. We help you avoid paying nosebleed-level fees to fund managers.

It’s not rocket science.

It’s actually the opposite. All you need is the ability to know the difference between the words Red and Green.

Sure, it’s advanced mathematics that tracks historical performance and gives investors the peace of mind to know when the markets are on the verge of total calamity.

But I LOVE that TradeSmith brings it all down to one color and word. Nothing more.

I’ll be writing more this week about how TradeSmith can help you eliminate bias and help you sleep better at night by just following our clear signals.

Good afternoon. Ready for another incredible trend?

As promised, let’s look at one more way that TradeSmith aligns with market events to deliver clear signals.

Let’s cut through the noise once again this week.

This time, we’re talking about the world’s most popular sport as the global economy reopens and we witness one of the most seismic business events in sports history.

If you missed it, I have you covered. It happened in Europe.

A dozen of the continent’s top European football (soccer) franchises are breaking rank with their governing body. In an effort to capture more revenue for themselves and take greater control of their markets, these teams are banding together to create a so-called “Super League.”

The 12 clubs could shake up the future of sports leagues around the globe, shatter six decades of precedent and cooperation, and dramatically alter sports television and gaming sectors forever.

And TradeSmith’s tools are right on top of the development.

Imagine If You Will

To explain what’s happening, I’ll use a U.S. football analogy for the development taking place in Europe’s No. 1 sport.

The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) is the governing body of college sports.

The NCAA has an antitrust exemption that makes it a judge and jury for college athletics. This body oversees all of the different conferences and their member teams.

In college football, the Southeastern Conference (SEC), the Big Ten, and the Big 12 conferences generate an incredible amount of money for college football, and include powerhouse schools like Alabama, Florida, Ohio State, Michigan, Oklahoma, and Louisiana State University (LSU).

There are other, smaller conferences with very good teams. For example, the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) features Clemson, a perennial title favorite each year.

At the end of the year, the best four teams (regardless of conference) in the country face off in a four-team playoff. Ultimately, they anoint a national champion.

Well, imagine for a minute if the SEC, Big 10, and Big 12 decided they didn’t want to play in the College Football Playoff anymore.

What if the best teams in these conferences all got together and said they’re leaving the NCAA?

What if they announced plans to launch a Super Conference and have their own national title?

Not only would this new league decimate the NCAA’s legitimacy and crush its revenue streams, but it would also incentivize other groups to consider following suit.

That is very similar to what is happening in Europe with European football.

A Super League Enters the Conversation

Since 1955, European football has featured a major, international competition called the UEFA Champions League (UCL).

It has been a staple tournament that ensures that the best 32 teams across Europe play each year for a highly coveted title.

The Union of European Football Association (UEFA) has overseen this tournament of teams that finish in the top tiers of their national leagues each year.

But 12 of the top teams decided that they’ve had enough of UEFA and this tournament. We are witnessing the onset of a very public fight over money, competition, and television rights.

The UCL has no permanent members. Historically, any European club could qualify if they played well enough in their nation’s league or through play-in games.

But the new league would have a fixed roster of 15 teams. All of them are European powerhouse teams. In addition, there would be five teams that would rotate in and out each year, depending on to-be-determined rules.

Not only would this Super League upend decades of UCL dominance, but participating teams would also collect the incredible revenues generated by ticket sales and television. According to Forbes, the UCL generated $2.36 billion in media revenue in 2018–19 alone.

This could effectively bury UEFA as a governing body, as the UCL comprised 51% of its revenue that year.

Whether or not it’s good for the game remains to be seen. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whose nation is the home of the mighty English Premier League, has vowed to block the Super League’s launch.

UEFA could ban these teams from future UCL tournaments, and Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), the global governing football body, could even ban players on Super League teams from the World Cup.

This fight has only started. But if the teams do move forward, they are talking about a start in 2023–24.

This rebel collective of teams has already found sponsor support. JPMorgan Chase has reportedly offered a $4 billion commitment to get the league off the ground, according to The Guardian.

Now, the most important component of this news is the roster of teams. You might recognize a few. They include AC Milan, Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, Chelsea, FC Barcelona, Internationazale, Juventus, Liverpool, Manchester City, Real Madrid, and Tottenham Hotspur.

The one team left — the fourth-most-valuable club in the world — is one of the few sports teams that trade publicly on U.S. exchanges.

Its name: Manchester United

Hello There, Green Zone

You don’t need to be a sports fan to know the name Manchester United.

Valued at $4.2 billion, the English club has been a mainstay at the top of the English Premier League for decades.

The names Cristiano Ronaldo, David Beckham, Roy Keane, Wayne Rooney, Ryan Giggs, Paul Scholes, and Eric Cantona are as iconic as the Hall of Fame baseball players who wore single-digit uniforms for the New York Yankees.

Manchester United went public in August 2012, a surprise given the lack of public sports companies available on the market at the time. It turns out that they were a trendsetter.

A decade later, a few sports franchises are now public, including the New York Knicks and New York Rangers through Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS), the Atlanta Braves through Liberty Braves Group (BATRK), and the Toronto Blue Jays through Rogers Communications (RCI).

In addition, valuations of sports franchises have exploded due to the popularity of sports streaming, the integration of fantasy sports, and the expected surge in interactive gambling. According to Forbes, NFL teams alone increased in value by 7% in 2020 despite the pandemic.

According to Statista, Manchester United’s valuation increased from $661 million in 2011 to $1.9 billion by 2018. It has retreated a bit, but the company’s valuation could quickly rebound in 2021 and beyond with news of this development.

When I saw the headlines about the Super League on Monday, I quickly looked up the ticker MANU.

MANU has bounced around for the last few months. Its VQ of 25.7% signals that it has a medium amount of risk within our system.

And it fell into the Yellow Zone back on March 25.

But wouldn’t you know it? Following this announcement, MANU bounced back into the Green Zone and aims to continue its uptrend momentum. This news could be a very significant catalyst for the European club.

Of course, there is risk that the idea gets shut down. But in the worst case, it appears that these mega-clubs are preparing for a battle to earn more revenue from their existing leagues. One can expect that UEFA and FIFA might look to cut a deal, and if they cannot, then this league would generate gobs of revenue for teams like Manchester United.

And given that TradeSmith aims to bring conviction to each trade, MANU signaled as a top opportunity in our Low Risk Runners and Kinetic VQ strategies.

In addition, MANU will also benefit from the reopening trend we’ve been talking about. Regardless of the Super League, fans will be back in the stands. And for British sports, fans will also be back in the pubs and other public places to watch the matches. The company remains one of the most recognizable sports brands in the world.

That likely isn’t going to change. And the opportunity for it to generate and keep more revenue through league innovation and partnerships drives my interest.

Let’s watch this to see if the uptrend continues.

There’s no shortage of noise flying around the markets today.

Bitcoin fell back under $54,000. Coca-Cola earnings emerged this morning.

Tesla. Goldman. Morgan. Alibaba. They’re all making headlines today.

Oh, and one more thing to worry about, the government now says that Peloton treadmills are dangerous.

But for me, there’s nothing more dangerous than noise.

I can’t trade noise. I can’t invest in noise. I don’t want noise.

Neither should you.

All it does is cloud up our screens.

It can cloud up your mind and limit your ability to find actionable trade ideas.

What I want and need is a very clear signal.

One that allows me to invest with confidence and put my feet up after I finish a trade…

That’s exactly what came across my desk last Thursday with this “bargain idea.”

The U.S. Economy Looks Ready to Run

I’m sure you’re aware right now that everyone is hyper-bullish about the U.S. economy.

In March, Justice Clark Litle shared his insight on a developing period of dynamic economic growth.

Two weeks ago, JPMorgan head Jamie Dimon shared a very similar sentiment.

The expected economic growth is unlike anything we’ve seen in four decades.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that U.S. GDP will increase 6.4% this year. That would be the fastest level since 1984 (a period when the dollar ripped higher).

Now, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta projects that first-quarter GDP came in at 6.2% and said that U.S. consumers would contribute more to the global recovery than China’s consumer class.

With pent-up consumer demand, a soaring savings rate, vibrant job growth, an accelerating recovery, and recent stimulus (with the prospect of more), the tailwinds are strong.

However, I keep seeing one unfortunate headline. I’m sure you’ve seen the same.

It’s the increasing expectation that inflation will hit the economy. In March, consumer prices increased by 2.6% year-over-year thanks partly to rising gasoline prices.

As you know, inflation cuts into purchasing power. That means you can buy less for the same money. Recently Goldman Sachs Group said that the companies that will succeed will be the ones that pass on an uptick in inflation to consumers.

With inflation in mind, I was interested to discover this reopening play when it passed into the Green Zone this week.

Not only does it address issues like inflation (wait until you see its business model), but it also does something that few retailers would ever think to do in an economy so reliant now on e-commerce.

Why This Name Hit the Green Screen

I’ll admit I didn’t know much about this retail firm when it entered the TradeStops Green Zone last Thursday.

I’ve been waiting for reopening stocks to cross my desk…

But I’ve only known Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) as a sponsor at Baltimore Orioles games.

Fans can grab $5 tickets on “Ollie’s Bargain Night” – typically on a weekday night – when the crowd is relatively sparse.

You might need binoculars to see the plate from the discount seats, but Ollie’s has offered a cheap way to see a game for years. I’ve also seen its advertisements on the outfield wall and in occasional newspaper inserts.

So, what is Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings?

Well, it could be one of the most absurd retail businesses that I’ve ever read about. Remember when I said this was a reopening trade?

I really mean it.

Because Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings sells 100% of its products in retail stores.

It does not sell any products online.

Seriously.

In the era of Amazon and COVID-19, you’d have to be totally out of your mind to be completely engaged in physical retail. Yet here is Ollie’s with nearly 400 stores that sell everything at rock-bottom, bargain prices (upwards of 70% off typical retail prices).

The company’s business model feels a bit crazy.

It buys out excess inventory from other companies as closeout purchases.

You won’t find everything they sell in a Target, Walmart, or even Dollar General.

Ollie’s targets a 40% gross margin. Forbes notes that the company really doesn’t even care what it’s selling so long as it can meet those figures.

In one profile story about the company’s executives, there is an account of the fact that stores can’t keep Chefman air fryers on the shelves. Weighted blankets are always in high demand. Ollie’s sells branded hangers, boxes of cookbooks, air conditioners next to sunscreen, family games, fishing gear, and an alarming amount of pottery.

It also sells big brands. You can pick up Star Wars Mega Construx (a Lego competitor) down the aisle from Farberware, Yankee Candle, Clorox, and Wrangler.

It might feel like a fire sale every single day.

But even though its per-foot sales is about half of Target and a third of Walmart, the company still finds a way to be even more profitable.

In 2019, Ollie’s operating margin was north of 13%. By comparison, Walmart is about 4%.

Trading Ollie’s Bargain

Ollie’s first hit the Green Zone back on April 27, 2020, trading around $68. It’s one of the more volatile stocks with a VQ of about 33%.

Ever since it hit green, it’s been all over the place, even dipping down to the Yellow Zone (caution or hold area) many times.

We care greatly when we see stocks turn Green, take a breather in the Yellow Zone, then bounce back to the Green Zone, because we’re looking for positive momentum and confirmation our stock is moving upwards.

On Thursday, Ollie’s hit the Green Zone yet again after being Yellow. Once it hit the Green Zone, shares then popped by more than 5% over the final two days of the week.

This is definitely a company to watch, and it has quite an appealing thesis over the long term given investor optimism about the business model. 

But that’s not the full story on why I’m excited about this potential bargain-basement stock.

The April 15 Green Zone trigger date coincided with three different strategies highlighted by our Ideas by TradeSmith product. Today, it’s considered a member of the Value, Low Risk Runners, and Best of the Billionaires strategies.

That means our indicators have a LOT of conviction around Ollie’s right now.

We’re going to discuss each of these strategies and how they might relate to your risk tolerance and profit potential. But first, I’ll be back tomorrow with one final reopening stock that recently hit the Green Zone and delivered nice gains.

Yesterday, we talked about “reopening stocks” and started with Match Group (MTCH).

I promised you two more reopening stocks that popped up in our Green Zones.

But I have something way more urgent to tell you.

So, let’s hold off until Monday on the picks…

And talk about something WAY MORE IMPORTANT.

Protecting your money.

The Reopening Trend Could Pummel This Stock

The theme of today’s story is the same.

We’re looking at reopening stocks. But we’re also paying attention to at-home stocks.

There’s a tech company that Wall Street believes has a 35% upside from today’s price.

And if someone was on television talking about that upside, I might be willing to run to my computer, pound away on my keyboard, and buy shares hand over fist.

You’d consider it too, right?

After all, Zoom Video Communications (ZM) has dominated headlines for the last 14 months.

The videoconferencing giant was the darling of the at-home trade. With millions of people stuck at home, “Zoom” became a verb that described online meetings between friends and work colleagues.

Demand went through the roof. And the stock rallied to nosebleed levels.

Shares of Zoom surged from about $67 per share in January 2020 to a 52-week high of $588.84.

For those keeping score, that’s a 778% gain.

Today, however, Zoom is off 43.5% from that all-time high.

The average Wall Street price target is 35% higher than today’s price.

The casual observer might think this is a bargain-basement price at $332 per share.

But then, I read an article that absolutely blew my mind.

And after looking at the data presented, I immediately turned to our very own flagship product, TradeStops.

The result? Everyone who reads this could save a fortune.

Is This Foreshadowing?

I read an article from Bloomberg this week that might signal a difficult future for Zoom.

A data research firm called Apptopia analyzed the “digital application” habits of people in New Zealand over the last few months.

They wanted to see how people engaged with these meeting apps like Zoom now that the nation has lifted most social distancing guidelines.

New Zealand hasn’t seen many new COVID-19 infections over the last few weeks.

As a result, people have returned to the office, schools, and public places.

The declining engagement in Zoom and other apps like Microsoft Teams (MSFT) could foreshadow the coming months and even years for the videoconferencing giant.

Last May, more than 250,000 people in New Zealand used Zoom, according to Apptopia.

That figure fell to 183,000 in September 2020… and then plunged to just 60,000 in February.

In the U.S., the numbers have been better (as we still face lockdowns and distancing around the nation.) In February, about 10.8 million Americans used Zoom on a daily basis.

But that figure was 13 million back in September.

Microsoft Teams has been falling as well. In New Zealand, daily users fell by 30% from September 2020 to February 2021.

The U.S. has seen a 15.6% decline for Microsoft Teams in that timeframe.

What does this tell us? It tells us that there might be more pain ahead for Zoom.

So, what should an investor do right now when thinking about Zoom Video Communications?

Should they buy Zoom Video Communications?

The real question one should ask is this: “What does TradeStops say?”

Caution Ahead

TradeSmith is all about conviction and sleeping well at night.

So many users have put their faith in this because it gives you all the signals you need to make an informed decision about any company.

In the case of Zoom Video Communications, TradeSmith has been sounding the alarm.

It is squarely in the Yellow Zone, which signals that investors should hold off and wait for an all-clear signal. This signal has been evident now since March 2.

That’s when shares fell below $391 (and the TradeStops yellow zone). Anyone who bought into Zoom on March 2 at $391 or below (and ignored the signal) would now be down as much as 15%. 

Meanwhile, the VQ on this stock signals sky-high risk right now.

If you’re like me and you don’t want to take on too much risk, the VQ offers you a very tight window of risk analysis on your stock prices. The higher the VQ, the more risk tolerance you will require to enter this stock.

Zoom might be a stock that has been owned by billionaires like Ray Dalio and Lee Ainslie, but I have a hunch that the price declines we’ve seen have been accelerated by their selling. We’ll know more about this in the coming weeks when we get updates on these fund managers’ positions from the Billionaire’s Club.

For now, I like to think that TradeSmith has outsmarted the market.

And saved some people a lot of money and heartache when it flashed that Yellow Zone signal.

So, if you already own Zoom, the yellow signal means hold to see if it goes back to green.  But for everyone else, if Zoom does go back to green, that’s the all-clear signal you need to buy!

I’ll be back with more Buy Zone picks on Monday.

I don’t need to tell you that Wall Street and retail investors are bullish about the economy.

The International Monetary Fund expects U.S. GDP to hit 6.5% this year.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon suggested that an epic economic surge might last well into 2023.

And people are buying stocks hand over fist in retail, cruise lines, movie theaters, airlines, and theme parks. If it’s something to do outside the home, people are buying in.

They’re calling it the Great Reopening for a reason. It feels like people are ready to party like it’s 1929 and 1999 combined.

There’s one reopening trade that so many investors have overlooked.

But Ideas by TradeSmith is here once again to guide us into terrific stocks with very compelling stories.

When this stock entered the Green Zone two weeks ago, my eyebrows raised.

And the more I looked into it, the more I agreed that this might be one of the best ideas yet.

What do you say we make it a date and explore this trade idea?

Meeting Your Match

I can’t imagine what it would be like to be in my 20s, in New York City, and unable to leave my apartment for an entire year. The lack of human interaction would drive me crazy.

But that’s what happened, and all the hotspots across the “Finance Capital of the World” shut down. They’re just starting to open back up.

Of course, people are buying stocks like Darden Restaurants (DRI) and Brinker International (EAT).

Both companies operate restaurants ranging in a variety of scales and price ranges. Darden owns the ritzy chain The Capital Grille and the more laid-back Olive Garden. Brinker owns Maggiano’s Little Italy restaurants and Chili’s (fun fact, Valentine’s Day is one of the busiest days of the year at Chili’s.)

But why invest in the restaurants after their stock prices surged in recent months?

Instead, think about investing in the people going to the restaurants.

That idea brings us to the dating conglomerate Match Group (MTCH).

This is the company behind Match.com, Tinder, OkCupid, PlentyofFish, and more and has been around for 25 years. Today, it operates dating apps and services in more than 50 countries in 12 languages.

People never used to date online.

They viewed the process as taboo. They mocked people who met on the internet.

It used to be that people met their dates in traditional ways. The most common methods of meeting someone since 1940 were through family and friends, at church, or in the neighborhood. All have been in decline.

And people have turned to digital apps as a source of finding love, friendship, or whatever suits their interests.

Pre-pandemic, 30% of adults used online dating apps, according to Pew Research Group. The pandemic pushed online dating and interaction online in 2020.

Now, with the reopening coming all around the world, Match Group has several tailwinds that could drive the stock much higher.

Looking at the Events

Match Group has two primary product events that create a compelling narrative.

First, it has launched Tinder Platinum. The “Swipe Left/Swipe Right” app has a more notorious reputation than it probably deserves. The Platinum level of the platform, its highest of four tiers, cuts through the traditional messaging and matching apparatus.

(I won’t get into the details because if I spend too much time researching Tinder for this article, someone in my house might start asking questions.)

Its premium price point is rather significant but, based on the successful gamification of the dating process and the urgency that the Platinum level creates, this could be a cash cow for the company.

One month is priced at $39.99, while a full year costs $199. So far, it’s done well in its limited rollout. A rollout worldwide in the second half of 2021 might push this stock into the stratosphere.

There’s nothing like reliable cash flow, and this could be a great source moving ahead.

Second, the company just purchased a social discovery and video tech firm called Hyperconnect. Based in Seoul, South Korea, Hyperconnect capitalized on the growing trend of video communications. Younger users are willing to use voice and text over traditional email methods. (Match Group paid more than $1.73 billion for the firm.)

Hyperconnect’s flagship app, Azar, already has 540 million downloads in six years. Across Match Group’s suite of global dating apps, it could easily add hundreds of millions more and monetize these users in very new ways.

One new way is the increasing tradition away from just dating apps. Match has followed competition into creating apps designed to help people make friends. In 2019, Match partnered with a media firm called Betches to

create a new app called Ship.

Ship allows people to make friends and pick out potential dates in the future. Like other dating apps, friendship and social apps enable people to post bios, find friends in local areas, and schedule events.

Thanks to Match’s new, emerging brands, one analyst at investment banking and capital research firm BTIG suggested that it could quickly generate more than $1 billion in revenue annually in the years ahead. They put a price target on the stock at $175 (a nearly 20% upside from Wednesday’s closing price.)

A few other analysts have suggested it could press even higher in the second half of 2021.

Here’s the Deal

TradeSmith remains the most powerful tool for finding great trade ideas. It provides all the quantitative analysis that you need to find a single stock idea, identify the right entry point, and set the ideal stop loss to protect your profit and principal over time.

If you’re a set-it and forget-it investor like me, it can’t get easier.

You don’t have to dig in and do all the research as I did on Match Group.

But I like to know the story. So, when a stock is in the Green Zone, and I want to buy it, I’ll do additional research. Or, I’ll reach out to Chief Research Officer Justice Clark Litle for his thoughts.

Speaking of Justice…

I’ll be talking to him next week about the best way to reduce bias when you’re buying and selling stocks. Tomorrow, I’ll be back with ANOTHER reopening stock that popped up in TradeSmith’s system.

People are still abuzz about Jerome Powell’s appearance on 60 Minutes.

In my opinion, they’re talking about the Fed Chair for the wrong reasons.

Powell moved the goalposts a little bit on Fed policy. Equity investors are increasingly worried about interest rates. But the CPI data on Tuesday showed less inflation than expected.

Two weeks ahead of the next Fed Open Market Committee meeting, Powell said it was “highly unlikely” his team will raise rates this year.

So, is Powell saying there’s a chance?

According to the CME FedWatch tool – which measures the market’s expectations – the chance of a rate hike by December sits at just 3.9%.

If the economy does heat up – and we’re talking about 6.5% GDP growth or more and a big jump in inflation – a hike makes sense.

But a 1-in-30 chance isn’t worth our time today.

The real news from the interview was the BIG NUMBER: $100 billion…

And his warning could either keep you up at night, or you could profit from it.

The Market’s Most Dangerous Trend

What’s the untold risk that could cause the financial system to melt down again?

Cybersecurity.

That’s right. Powell put cybersecurity in the same sentence as COVID-19 when discussing key “dangers” to the U.S. economy.

According to the International Monetary Fund, cybersecurity could cost global banks $100 billion each year.

“The world evolves, and the risks change as well, and I would say that the risk that we keep our eyes on the most now is cyber risk,” Powell said.

Powell pointed to a variety of dangerous scenarios where large financial firms might lose track of payments. If that happened, Powell said it would grind the system to a halt while markets attempted to unwind those payments.

Cybersecurity isn’t just the biggest threat to the financial sector.

It’s also become the biggest cost.

Banks like JPMorgan (JPM) or Goldman Sachs (GS) have addressed their cybersecurity. They have deep pockets and the ability to hire the top experts.

JPMorgan alone spent $600 million on cybersecurity last year, according to Jamie Dimon.

But the smaller community and regional banks are the ones who are struggling to compete. As a result, cybersecurity represents one of the core drivers of mergers and acquisitions in the banking sector — so pay very close attention.

Not only is there a chance to profit from banks selling themselves, but there is also ever-increasing potential to make real money by owning the best cybersecurity stocks that cater to this industry.

This Cybersecurity Stock Is Now in the Green and Clear

Let’s dig into a pure-play approach to addressing banks and cybersecurity.

It’s hard to ignore Unisys (UIS), a mission-critical IT company with extreme exposure to cyber challenges in the financial sector.

According to a Unisys report, financial institutions may lose as much as $250 million in a single breach. The company’s slogan “Securing Your Tomorrow” is written as if it’s a love letter to bank CEOs.

The digitalization of the banking sector has created an incredible surge in demand among consumers.

You might recall walking up to an ATM or standing in line to speak to someone at the counter. You might even remember those ridiculous pens that hang from a chain and always run out of ink.

Unisys has been at the forefront of the major trend that has occurred during COVID. Banking is now “digital first” and highly customer-centric. Financial institutions need a holistic strategy to protect the multiple touchpoints across the industry — such as phones, tablets, ATMs, in-person banking, and more.

And they must provide the necessary infrastructure for digital workplace transformations, e-lending platforms, mortgage lending and management, and other critical, traditional banking functions.

But the backbone of all of this integration is cybersecurity.

The firm’s Unisys Stealth platform partners with Dell EMC to provide first-class data recovery and customer protection.

The company boasts that its platform is “defense-grade” and uses identity-based segmentation that ensures that only the customer can have access to their critical information.

Finally, Unisys says its cryptographic wrapper tied to Dell’s recovery network makes it nearly impossible for hackers and malware to crack. The firm says that it only permits authorized devices to engage with the bank.

Unisys helps financial institutions worldwide with their IT solutions and counts financial, government, and commercial giants as customers.

In North America, customers include Union Bank & Trust, United Community Bank, Wings Financial, BlueCross North Dakota, Dell Technologies, and multiple state and local universities.

That diverse base of customers combined with the trust factor baked into these relationships caught my attention.

Into the Green Zone

At TradeSmith, we’re looking for real conviction behind a solid trend.

That’s why I was thrilled to see that Unisys is in the Green Zone and remains in a momentum up-trend.

At about $25, the company looks like an attractive stock to consider, given the growing trend around cybersecurity. 

The stock has been in our Green Zone since November and could break out in the coming months.

At long last. Here it is.

I said last Monday when I started writing TradeSmith Daily that I had a terrific reopening stock.

But then I got excited about banking stocks and Warren Buffett.

This happens from time to time.

When you have a technology platform as robust and informative as TradeSmith, it’s easy to get distracted.

The challenge is to take so many FANTASTIC ideas and find real conviction.

Today, I have it for you on a silver plate. And it all starts with a clear signal from TradeSmith.

This company is one of my favorite entertainment companies in the world.

Let’s dive headfirst into this pick with “Big Ears.”

Wall Street is Bullish

Conviction requires a lot of diligence.

So, let’s take a look. This Netflix opponent has Wall Street acting extremely bullish.

Shares of this company are trading under $186.

The last five price targets from analysts put the stock north of $220.

That’s an 18% upside minimum.

And that target might be underselling the potential here.

The technical looks beautiful with an 80% momentum push over the last year.

Its 20-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average. On the fundamentals, its asset growth over the last 12 months is green.

And when COVID-19 hit this stock, it pivoted as one of the best success stories in 15 years.

You bet.

I’m very bullish about Walt Disney (DIS). And to me, this is the type of stock that belongs in your “forever” portfolio where you could literally hold it forever and know they’ll always have the right model!

The stock sits square in the Green Zone (our buy signal), and it’s continuing to be a strong momentum play. It’s in the Best of the Billionaires, our Low Risk Runners, and Sector Selects.

So, after this year’s run, why does TradeSmith show so much upside?

Let’s look at the details.

The Stream Dream Team

If you remember, 2019 was a banner year for Walt Disney. Its studios had all six of the most successful movies of that year.

As we know, the closure of movie theaters was an ugly story for this industry.

But Walt Disney’s stars aligned with the launch of Disney+.

There were many questions about Disney+ at the time of its launch.

“Another streaming service?” people whined with the inception.

Well, the numbers don’t lie. Disney+ has already surpassed 100 million subscribers.

Remember that they hadn’t projected that they would reach 90 million subscribers until 2024, when the service initially launched.

Even more amazing – customer loyalty and satisfaction are already on par with Netflix, the original streaming giant, and which so many other services imitate.

No one batted an eye when Disney+ raised its prices, and there are likely a few additional price increases in the future. Combine Disney+ with its success of ESPN+ (backed by its Ultimate Fighting Championship partnership) and its stake in Hulu, and you’ve got a solid source of cash flow for the foreseeable future.

Disney+ isn’t slated to turn a profit for another two years, but that doesn’t appear to matter right now. The company predicts 260 million subscribers now by 2024, which is nearly three times the original projection.

And let’s face it. Giant streaming services are all about building up their customer pipelines and future subscription-based revenue.

And Wall Street just loves subscriber growth and subscription plans.

Disney+’s massive library complements a new business model that will allow it to continue to charge people $30 to stream films at home.

And if you think that $30 for a film is too much, don’t be surprised how the company monetizes its Star Wars franchise. There is a distinct possibility that it focuses on content development at a higher price point for the more engaged fanatic who would pay the same prices for a film as they do for concert or sports tickets.

That just feels like a matter of time.

It’s Time to Reopen

Meanwhile, let’s not forget that Disney has multiple parks here in the United States opening for business.

The pent-up demand for Disney is already brimming.

Recently, a man was arrested and thrown off Disney property for refusing to conduct a temperature check. He complained that he paid too much money to be arrested.

He’d spent $15,000 on a Disney vacation.

The funny thing: There are probably 50 to 100 people who would gladly take his spot.

Analysts are now expecting record profits at the park when traffic returns to pre-pandemic levels.

Disney’s resilience throughout COVID-19 warrants significant optimism for the company moving forward. The studio will return to the big screen with several films from its Star Wars, Pixar, and Marvel Studios.

The catalysts for Disney look better than almost anyone right now.

People are talking about hotel stocks as a great buy. Disney owns hotels.

People are hyping sports and entertainment stocks. Disney owns ESPN and the greatest treasure trove of entertainment intellectual property on the planet.

People are talking about restaurants, travel stocks, cruise lines, and retail plays.

Disney is involved in all four of these industries, as well.

It would be hard to find that “reopening” industry that Disney doesn’t have a leading position in today. And that includes educational technology – they do have a magnet school in Chicago.

Disney is a top reopening pick… and anything up to $190 a share is an attractive entry price.