The Tech IPO Mania of 2020 Has Matched if Not Exceeded 1999-2000
Dec 14, 2020 | Educational
On their Vitalogy album, the 1990s megaband Pearl Jam has a track titled “This is Not For You.” It would make a good theme song for initial public offerings (IPOs), as in: When you see a hot initial public offering and feel tempted to buy it, remember: “This is not for you.” Hot tech IPOs are liquidity events for the…
The Dollar Smile Puts Investors in a Happy Place
Dec 08, 2020 | Educational
As a general rule, the U.S. dollar is strong under two conditions. If the dollar is strong, either the economic outlook is exceptional for the United States alone, or the outlook is bad — possibly crisis-level bad — for the rest of the world (and potentially for the United States, too). These conditional extremes — where the dollar is strong…
Revisiting the Great British Bicycle Bubble of 1896
Dec 04, 2020 | Educational
In 1890s Britain, the bicycle represented a social and environmental breakthrough. Public enthusiasm for bicycles — and for the shares of publicly traded bicycle manufacturers — then fueled the Great British Bicycle Bubble of 1896. The bubble inflated quickly, with share prices in British bicycle companies tripling in the space of months in 1896, even as the number of bicycle…
Privacy Concerns are Not an Existential Threat to Bitcoin
Nov 30, 2020 | Educational
On Nov. 24 we asked, “When will Bitcoin have a meaningful correction?” The very next day, a concerning piece of news triggered a correction-worthy sell-off into the Thanksgiving holiday (crypto markets never close). But the Bitcoin correction then self-corrected, almost wholly reversing over the weekend that followed. At the worst point of the correction — or perhaps call it a…
The Mechanics of Negative Interest Rates
Nov 27, 2020 | Educational
Editor’s Note: One of the strangest things about the modern financial era is the dawn of negative interest rates. Who knew such a thing was even possible? And why do they exist in the first place? In today’s “best of” piece, originally published in May, we revisit the mechanics of negative interest rates and explain how they work. — JCL…
Bitcoin is the Purest Form of ‘Hard Money’ Ever Created
Nov 26, 2020 | Educational
Bitcoin could be one of the greatest public investment opportunities in all of recorded history. That’s not hyperbole. We are serious about this — and we come to that view having studied Bitcoin intently for more than two years, and global markets overall for more than 20. There are venture-capital opportunities and private-investment opportunities that can deliver multi-thousand-percent returns. But…
Why Mental Capital is Just as Important as Financial Capital
Nov 25, 2020 | Educational
Editor’s Note: When the end-of-year holidays roll around, we like to revisit an assortment of “best of” pieces taken from throughout the year. And what a year it has been. Given the degree to which 2020 has been mentally taxing for almost everyone, it seems fitting to revisit the topic of mental versus financial capital, and the reasons why both…
When Will Bitcoin Have a Meaningful Correction? (Don’t Hold Your Breath)
Nov 24, 2020 | Educational
Bitcoin’s performance in recent weeks has quietly shocked Wall Street. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is up more than 41% for the month of November alone — with a week of 24-hours-per-day trading left to go — and less than $500 from its all-time high set in 2017. The drumbeat of Bitcoin endorsements from financial heavy hitters is…
The Next U.S. Treasury Secretary Will be Pro-MMT
Nov 20, 2020 | Educational
In our view, inflation will make a true comeback in the second half of 2021. Not weak inflation either, but the real stuff. It could be the kind of inflation we haven’t seen in years. Rising wage levels for the average worker could materialize too, providing the fuel source for a sustainable, multi-year inflation trend. If it happens, there will…
What Ray Dalio is Missing About Bitcoin
Nov 19, 2020 | Educational
Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller have at least three things in common. They are both multi-billionaires. They are both hedge fund legends in the global macro space. And they have both publicly endorsed Bitcoin and confirmed they are long. Ray Dalio is another global macro hedge fund legend, with a net worth in the vicinity of $15 to $20…
