A Looming Meat Shortage Demonstrates the Fragility of Supply Chains
Apr 29, 2020 | News
Supply chains are a marvel of modern commerce. The links of a supply chain can span tens of thousands of miles, traversing whole continents and crisscrossing the globe. Supply chains are also fragile and vulnerable to disruption. Under adverse circumstances, a supply chain can easily get backlogged or broken. The lack of a part from a single factory, or the…
The Next Wave of Layoffs will be White Collar — and People Working From Home
Apr 27, 2020 | News
On March 31 we said “The Odds of a V-Shaped Recovery are Zero.” The analysis still holds — and the case has only grown stronger. On March 31 we pointed out that the retail, restaurant, and travel industries account for 73.4 million jobs by self-reported estimates, accounting for nearly half of all U.S. jobs. In terms of layoffs, those three…
Unsettling News from L.A. to Sweden (and Japan to Singapore)
Apr 22, 2020 | News
It’s possible that more than 400,000 people in Los Angeles county (population 10.1 million) have already contracted COVID-19. The estimate comes from a new study conducted jointly by the University of Southern California (USC) and the LA Department of Public Health. The study conducted antibody testing on 863 people, with results pointing to a 4.1% infection rate. The data matches…
This is Going to be a Long Fight
Apr 07, 2020 | News
A global pandemic is about as serious as it gets, and this is going to be a long fight. Even if an “apex” comes in April, we’re only at the beginning of this thing. It’s important to be clear on this. If you look at a situation realistically, without downplaying it or sugarcoating it, you can steel yourself for the…
Domestic Travel Bans are Highly Likely for the United States
Apr 06, 2020 | News
The hockey legend Wayne Gretzky summed up his approach in one sentence: “Skate to where the puck is going, not to where it has been.” The quote has probably been used — and abused — by tens of thousands of corporate executives. But the quote is popular because it captures an important idea. To be competitive and prepared, you have…
China’s Coronavirus Stats Can’t Be Trusted
Apr 01, 2020 | News
The coronavirus data coming out of China is manipulated, and possibly outright false. We know this, in part, because a Chinese health official has admitted as much. There have also been questions and red flags around China’s data reporting from very early on. This matters because China’s coronavirus statistics — the number of cases, the number of fatalities, and the…
Congress Needs Remote Legislating Capabilities As Soon As Possible
Mar 27, 2020 | News
Without remote legislation capabilities, there are plausible scenarios where Congress loses its ability to legislate, or even to function. Imagine a scenario where the government is frozen in place — and no new emergency bills or measures can be passed. The risk of a non-functioning government, in the midst of the worst global crisis in generations, is now staring us…
Is $2 Trillion Worth of Stimulus a “Nuclear Bomb” — or a Mattress in a Volcano?
Mar 26, 2020 | News
A $2 trillion emergency relief bill passed in the U.S. Senate by unanimous vote. The bill is likely to pass in the House, and the president is likely to sign it. The final ink is not dry as of March 26. And yet we can say, with a high degree of confidence, that roughly $2 trillion worth of aid is…
The Day the Fed Went to Infinity — and Markets Didn’t Care
Mar 24, 2020 | News
The Federal Reserve went to infinity, and markets didn’t care. It’s hard to say which part of that statement is more remarkable. On the one hand, the Fed has promised to print endless trillions, if need be, to absorb whatever assets it needs to. That is mind-blowing. On the other hand, the market took the Fed’s announcement in stride —…
America and the World Will Never Be the Same
Mar 20, 2020 | News
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin once said: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” We are living through one of those weeks. Lenin led the Bolshevik revolution of 1917 and the formation of the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) in 1922. When he said “there are weeks where decades happen,” Lenin meant society can exist…
